Rishi Sunak didn't believe in the Rwanda Scheme as Chancellor
Rishi Sunak is stuck between a rock and a hard place over his Rwanda migration scheme, and now we know that initially he had doubts about it too.
Sunak’s admission
This week, documents have surfaced revealing that, as Chancellor, Rishi Sunak wanted to scale back the Rwanda scheme, was reluctant to provide funding and wasn’t sure if it was a sufficient deterrent.
Sunak denied that he ever had doubts about the Rwanda scheme, arguing that as Chancellor his job was to scrutinise the plans before providing government funding. At today’s Prime Minister’s Questions, Keir Starmer questioned Sunak about his doubts, and argued that he had been “taken hostage by his own party”. The fact that the policy Sunak has pushed hardest to implement was something he initially doubted is laughable. It proves that the Tory rebels are correct that in its current form, the scheme won’t work.
Context
Last Autumn, the Supreme Court ruled that the government’s Rwanda migration deal was unlawful. It intended to send all illegal migrants to Rwanda, rather than housing them in UK hotels, at taxpayers expense. Following the court’s ruling, Sunak devised a new parliamentary bill to get around the legal challenge.
The bill says that Rwanda is a safe country and that ministers can disregard sections of the Human Rights Act to detain and deport migrants. The courts are also ordered to ignore other laws and regulations, such as the International Refugee Convention. Sunak insisted that the new law was the "only approach" that would prevent further legal challenges. However, government lawyers admit that these measures could still be challenged by the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights). The bill passed it’s first vote in Parliament in December, and faces further scrutiny in the coming weeks.
18 months after the scheme was initially launched, no flights have taken off to Rwanda, and yet at least £240 million of taxpayers money has been spent. Yvette Cooper, Shadow Home Secretary has claimed that the costs could be closer to £400 million and said that "The Conservatives should stop dragging out this chaos and come clean about the real costs and problems."
Tory opposition
The new Rwanda bill looks set to face a significant rebellion from Tory MPs, with over 30 backbenchers supporting amendments that would make it harder for people to appeal deportation. These backbenchers include former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith, and former Home Secretary Suella Braverman. Ex-migration minister Robert Jenrick also opposes the bill, arguing it wouldn’t prevent a “merry-go-round” of individual appeals.
At the first vote, many rebels threatened to vote against it, but in the end they only abstained. This time could be different, and Sunak may need to cater to their demands if he wants to see any flights to Rwanda before the general election. The rebels’ proposed amendments would allow the government to ignore the Strasbourg court’s injunctions, and prevent migrants from avoiding deportation by going to court.
In her Daily Mail article, Suella Braverman said “As drafted, this Bill will not stop the boats”, and argued that it would become “bogged down with individual legal challenges from migrants”. She also declared that she “wanted us to actually stop the boats. That was the pledge. And that's what we owe the British people. Nothing less will do”. If Tory MPs, particularly those on the right of the party, rally around Braverman, this could pose a serious threat to Sunak’s leadership.
Immigration civil war
I have previously said that the current immigration crisis is creating a Conservative civil war, and 2024 might be the year when the party finally cracks. Sunak is stuck between a rock and hard place on the Rwanda scheme. If he doesn’t cater to rebel demands, he risks the bill being voted down. But alternatively, if he accepts their amendments in full, he will likely upset One-Nation Tories, who are warning against breaching international law.
The government has spent too much money and time on this Rwanda scheme to just give up, but it seems the plan is destined to fail. It will either be rejected by MPs, or challenged by the ECHR. Tory MPs, and the electorate, will not accept this crisis for much longer. Robert Jenrick argued that if the bill wasn’t fixed that “the country will be consigned to more illegal crossings, more farcical migrant hotels and billions more of wasted taxpayers' money in the years to come". It is a disgrace that the government spends £8 million a day on hotels for illegal migrants. This crisis has happened under the Conservative’s watch and they seem powerless to solve it.
Conclusions
As I have said previously, the UK needs immigration, as much of our public services depend on it, but it needs to be controlled. If Sunak does not cater to rebel demands, and the Rwanda scheme fails, as they predict, a vote of no-confidence in his leadership is a real possibility. Reform UK’s radical net-zero immigration policy may also attract Conservative MPs and voters, further dividing the party, and worsening their electoral prospects for this year. 2024 has started badly for Sunak, and the revelation that he himself didn’t truly believe in the Rwanda scheme shows it was flawed and doomed to fail from the very beginning.
Will Labour come up with a better alternative to the Rwanda plan? Will any flights take off to Rwanda before the election? Who will take over as Tory leader after Sunak?
Let me know your thoughts